Household-level analysis got Naidu back, now directs government

It is estimated that the ‘Super Six’ welfare schemes promised by incoming Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, expected to be rolled out within the first 100 days of taking charge next week, will cost a staggering ₹97,000 cr. Team Naidu, however, is not intimidated by the figure despite the fiscal state of Andhra Pradesh.
Reason being, all homework is largely done.
Experts have been at work even before the poll promise was made, to tie up the ends and account for funding in various ways from increasing the tax-GDP ratio by 1% to 1.5%, to bringing in revenue generating projects into the coastal state and ensuring completed checklists for due central funding for national schemes. An economic package from the Centre could allow even more elbow room.

Not one to waste time, fourth time CM Naidu is already looking to the future but much of his playbook is based on the learnings gleaned from a tough election campaign over the last three years.A key lesson learnt was to ensure that welfare schemes do not become redundant over time- like in rival YSR Congress’ model.ET gathers that plans are afoot to go down again to the household level like his campaign’s ‘Idhem Karma’ voter survey- but this time a survey to assess per capita income, understand deeper economic concerns of every family and bridge the gaps between ‘haves and have nots’ with targeted schemes that are flexible and more customised rather than blanket ‘doles’ which become ineffective after a point.”Chandrababu Naidu today is not just looking at or offering plain wealth distribution like the previous government but is focussing also at wealth creation- both have to go hand in hand”, an insider told ET.

GROUND UP

The Super Six and other poll promises, however, were the final piece of campaign Naidu and came into play only in mid 2023, months before the election cycle.

The first pieces were moved right from ground and just after 2019 elections delivered a serious drubbing to the CBN led Telegu Desam Party.

“There were three elements to the Naidu campaign, and each was challenging. The first was most difficult as it involved establishing a driven and digitally connected party structure right up to the booth level at a time they were reconciling with a demoralising defeat to YSR Congress. The second piece was forging the alliance with Jana Sena and BJP. The third key piece was setting the narrative for elections- it was not Jagan Reddy Vs Chandrababu Naidu but Jagan Reddy Vs Andhra Pradesh”, Robin Sharma, Director of ShowTime Consultancy-the political consultancy firm engaged for the Naidu campaign- told ET.

A new TDP network was assiduously crafted over nearly two years- with deep roots stretching down to the level of 100 voters- under a ‘Section’.

This moved up to a 1,000 voter segment under the ‘booth’ and a 5,000 voter set under a ‘unit’. A ‘cluster’ held charge of 25,000 voters. A party in-charge was brought in to further monitor two clusters each at the ‘mandal’ level.

Such sections, booths, units and clusters ultimately fed into the bigger assembly constituency and parliamentary constituency level- all fully digitally linked, held accountable household wise on voter preferences and concerns and relaying in turn, the TDP message to voters, Sharma said.

Once this party structure was alive and kicking, communication lines were opened with Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena and the old ally BJP to sit at the same table.

SUPER SIX

It was only in mid 2023 that the TDP fully declared its ‘super six’ promises and took the message to ground through its now robust apparatus of ‘section to cluster’.

The ‘Idhem Karma Mana Rashtraniki’ campaign launched in December 2022 proved crucial.

The door-to-door survey revealed that a range of problems and concerns were faced and expressed by people- despite the cash flow from the Jagan Reddy government, revealing thereby the gaps and holes in the YSR Congress welfare model.

“The TDP ‘Super Six’ was drafted in a way that not only plugged the gaps of the YSR Congress schemes but also build over them to offer a more comprehensive electoral promise to the voter addressing a range of concerns on from employment to transport to household savings.”, Sharma explained.

Even as Team Naidu planned to campaign pitch the ‘development’ plank so closely linked with CBN’s image, the Jagan Reddy government threw in a surprise element with his arrest in September 2023.

Public sympathy apart, it ultimately led to the framing of the final narrative setting which saw the Andhra voter switch to ‘Babu’ again- the choice now was the individual Jagan Reddy Vs the people of Andhra Pradesh.